The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) stated in a weather bulletin on Sunday that a Low Level Circulation (LLC) has formed over the South Arabian Sea between latitude 6°N to 12°N to longitude 58°E to 64°E. According to Skymet Weather, an Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has triggered another weather system in the Arabian Sea.
“The system is moving onto favouring weather conditions, due to which the circulation is most likely to intensify into a low pressure area very soon,” it said. “With the long sea travel ahead, the system has potential to gain even more strength. In fact, this system may follow the same track as Cyclone Sagar. We expect this system to churn out into a deep depression but whether it would become a tropical storm or not is yet to be ascertained.”
Oman’s Met office stated that it is monitoring the atmospheric pressure south of the Arabian Sea. “There isn’t any possibility of direct influence on the weather in Oman of the buildup over the next three days.” According to Cyclocane, a cyclone and hurricane tracker portal, the area of convection is located near approximately 877nm southeast of Duqm, Oman.
“Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows an area of broad turning and flaring convection. Weather images further show a broad disorganised circulation with pockets of deep convection around the LLC. “Most of the global models are in agreement that the disturbance will track generally to the north and intensify over the next several days.”
The LLC is predicted to get better organised in the next three days. The cyclonic circulation has also revived pre-monsoon rains in India leading to good rainfall over parts of Kerala for the past two-three days.
“We expect that the system would continue to give more rains over the state,” Skymet stated. “However, as the system gets more marked, it would take away all the moisture from the nearby areas. Thus, rains over Kerala would reduce gradually. Thereafter, the system would move away from the Indian coast and would not have impact over its weather.”